Perhaps there will be the most valuable IPO in history, and maybe there will be Intel cars. It’s all because electric cars and automatic driving are too expensive.
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There is a certain probability that you will soon see the world’s first $100 billion IPO listing, and Intel, the strongest chip company, also began to build cars through its subsidiaries.
The two news about public offering recently exposed are not two small waves in the securities market. If you imagine or deduce it, you will find something else.
The news that Volkswagen is considering listing Porsche in an independent IPO has been circulated for a long time, but this time it gives the approximate amount scale and equity change model. Intel plans to let Mobileye go public next year. This is not “picking peaches” after investment, but Intel’s first deal against competitors such as AMD.
The common point of these two messages is not only that “both have IPOs”, but also that electric vehicles and automatic driving are too promising and too expensive.
As a result, leading companies in the fields of automobile and chip began to rack their brains to play with their property.
“Two 100 billion dollar stories”
The astronomical amount is always there.
The first $100 billion comes from the “possible” market value of Porsche after its independent IPO. According to the source, the market value of independent Porsche is about 45 to 90 billion euros, with the highest value being 101 billion dollars, or 650 billion yuan. Well, it seems that three Porsche can repay Evergrande’s debts.
Some people may ask, isn’t this a Porsche company that has been listed with stocks? Why IPO again?
Oh, let’s help you briefly recall the unprecedented war in the first decade of this century:
Everyone knows that the controllers behind Volkswagen and Porsche are two in-laws of Porsche (also translated into Polcher) and Piech. Since 2005, Porsche and Volkswagen have begun to merge with each other. In fact, behind the scenes, the spokesmen of the two families are fighting – Ferdinand Pierce, chairman of the Volkswagen Supervisory Board, and Wolfgang Porsche, the head of Porsche, who are also cousins.
Porsche SE is actually a “shell” set up for the convenience of capital operation. We usually call Porsche AG for short. Therefore, after several bloody battles of equity manipulation and introduction of foreign aid, Volkswagen holds 100% shares in Porsche AG, while Porsche SE becomes the largest shareholder of Volkswagen with 53.3% voting rights and 31.4% shares. In other words, Porsche cars have not been listed independently.
So why has the public changed its mind now? Consider separating the Porsche Motor Company that was not easy to swallow into independent listing? The source said that this is because Volkswagen intends to obtain more funds to support the development of electric vehicles, software and intelligent vehicles.
The equity operation mode is also very strange. The Porsche-Piech family certainly does not want to give up the Porsche car company. For this reason, they intend to sell a part of VW shares through Porsche SE, which may raise about 15 billion euros.
Of course, the Porsche family cannot give up Volkswagen. With the current market value of about US $70 billion to US $100 billion, raising 15 billion euros will probably require 15 to 20% of the equity. After the raising, the “behind the scenes” will still have 12 to 16% of the equity and a larger proportion of the voting rights. Now Volkswagen’s second largest shareholder is Lower Saxony, Germany, with 11.8% equity and 20% voting rights. Therefore, even if the Porsche family sells part of VW’s equity, it is still the number one shareholder.
The second $100 billion story is even more interesting.
Intel officially announced its intention to arrange the IPO of its Mobileye autonomous vehicle business.
Compared with the public’s reticence about the IPO of Porsche, Intel and Mobileye are really generous. The news that Volkswagen arranged for the listing of Porsche was only released by Dish, who was obsessed with reform but was overwhelmed by the internal palace fight, saying that it was “considered”. Then the above disclosure was called “pure speculation” by Porsche, while Volkswagen kept silent.
Intel, however, tells us that the time is before the middle of 2022; Intel will remain the majority shareholder after the transaction; The Mobileye executive team led by Amnon Shahua will also remain in office.
The reason is that Intel has lost its market share due to the impact of powerful rivals such as AMD. Pat Gelsinger, the CEO at the helm in February this year, is determined to reform. “By the end of this decade, the auto chip market will reach 115 billion dollars.” This is Intel’s prediction and the “second 100 billion dollars” we will say.
These two hundred billion dollars actually point to the same deep thinking direction: the heavy investment fields of the automobile industry are electric and intelligent.
Volkswagen returns blood and Intel builds cars
Auto new energy and intelligent internet connection/automatic driving are in the stage of explosive growth. But this is only one side of the coin, and the bright side focuses on market share and sales. On the other hand, from the perspective of profit and perfect business model, as well as the level of ultra-high investment in the early stage, that is the heavy and dark side.
To be honest, at least on the issue of money, I believe in the motives of the public.
You should know that the development cost of MEB platform has reached 50 billion euros, which is no less than that of MQB platform, which was the first modular platform in that year. Moreover, the scale of the next PPE advanced electric vehicle platform will not be lower than the previous MLB+MSB platform.
▲ Volkswagen share price
This is just an expense in the field of electrification, plus perhaps more expensive intelligence. Herbert Dish, the CEO of Volkswagen, once made up for his shortcomings. He felt that Volkswagen’s software strength was not good enough, so he recruited 10000 software engineers to form a team at once. Think about it, Tencent’s R&D personnel are only 20000 in total. So many high-paying farmers need not raise much money?
However, in terms of the direction of car electrification and intellectualization, Intel is actually in the same camp with Volkswagen. Because consumer electronics and other traditional chips, Intel has been hit by AMD and other companies. The best way is to find a more promising “blue ocean”.
From the end of this year to the beginning of next year, Intel will start to manufacture car-grade chips. The original automobile MCU chips and other chips are not valued because of the low manufacturing process and the low share of chip market revenue. However, a “core shortage” has completely overturned the concept of the automobile and semiconductor industry. According to the views of Intel, Bosch and other companies, as well as IHS and other consulting companies, the chip shortage will last at least until the third quarter of next year.
“The second 100 billion dollars” lures Intel to make transformation, invest more weight in the auto chip business, and even “build cars” in disguised form through its subsidiaries.
Everyone is also familiar with the details of Mobileye. The eye Q3/4/5 chip is now widely used in major automobile enterprises, and Q6 will be launched in 2023. In 2017, Intel spent $15 billion to acquire Mobileye. Since then, there has been no independent Mobileye company in the world, only “Mobileye, an autonomous driving business of Intel”.
Recently, Mobileye has done two things, which it and Intel have used to hype: one is to ship the 100th EyeQ chip system, and the other is to launch a self-driving six-seat passenger car – in fact, it is a verification car modified from the Weilai ES8.
In fact, the word “car building” is often misunderstood. Intel and Mobileye will certainly not make a copy of the Tesla car brand, but it will not prevent the development of Didi ONE models similar to those produced by BYD for Didi. Since 2022, Mobileye will be used for driverless taxi service in Tel Aviv and Munich.
This cannot be denied that Intel has great expectations for the auto business. For example, in 2020, it bought Moovit at a price of about US $900 million – and Mobileye, an Israeli start-up in the hometown, focused on map data and could be integrated into the bus service. In the future, this department and Intel employees engaged in laser radar and radar development will become an integral part of Mobileye.
Yes, Intel is still clamoring that it has won contracts with more than 30 head car manufacturers around the world, and the data of Guidehouse Insights research company is often turned out for advertising. “Mobileye has about 80% of the global market share of advanced driver-assisted vision systems”. By the way, the predecessor of Guidehouse Insights is Navigant Research, the author of the world’s first auto driving strength ranking, which is ranked last by Tesla every time.
Well, we can get two old conclusions: the auto industry has a bright future. With the support of electric and intelligent technology, Intel has come to the market, and Volkswagen is also looking for ways to increase the price; However, new energy and automatic driving are two big money-burning pits. Both Porsche and Mobileye need IPO to exchange money.
The problem is that after reading the story of “two hundred billion dollars”, you will be more impressed by these two cliches, and it is possible to immediately join in the huge trend, but no longer sneer at it