More “Huawei” chips have emerged in China. Bill Gates overestimated Chinese chips? The situation changes

After Huawei was unable to produce chips due to the influence of chip rules, the industry had expected more companies similar to Huawei to emerge in Chinese chips. However, the reality seemed a little different. In the past two years, more than 8000 chip companies fell in China, which seemed to show that these chip companies had become an extravagant hope to take over Huawei.
More “Huawei” chips have emerged in China. Bill Gates overestimated Chinese chips? The situation changes
1、 Chip is a capital-intensive high-threshold industry
Perhaps the industry thinks that chip research and development is a simple matter. Buy the public core from ARM, assemble it, and then deliver it to TSMC for production. The technical difficulty is very low. However, this is not the case. The chip research and development cycle is quite long, and the technical difficulty is also very high.
Xiaomi, a domestic mobile phone brand, has also developed a mobile phone processor and has not integrated a baseband chip. However, after the mass production of the surging S1, the surging S2 disappeared. Since then, Xiaomi has still been developing chips, but has turned to charging chips, ISP chips and other chips with lower difficulty.
Apple is the most powerful chip company in the mobile chip market. Its M-series processor represents the highest level of the ARM camp. This is the first time that the ARM architecture and the only processor that can rival Intel in performance. Qualcomm and other companies are beyond Apple’s reach. However, Apple is still unable to develop baseband chips after acquiring Intel’s baseband chip business.
More “Huawei” chips have emerged in China. Bill Gates overestimated Chinese chips? The situation changes
These examples all show that the difficulty of chip research and development is very high, and the concentration of chip talents may not lead to the development of a perfect chip. Even Huawei’s mobile phone chip research and development in the same year is from the launch of baseband chip in 2005 to the launch of the perfect mobile phone SOC chip in 2014. It can be seen how difficult the chip research and development is.
Chips are also a capital-intensive industry. Industry insiders point out that it takes nearly ten million to obtain authorization from ARM, and then every time we arrive at TSMC, we also need to calculate it in tens of millions. Once the chip is not successfully streamed, the loss is often close to one hundred million. It can be said that the chip will be watered down accidentally.
2、 Are domestic chips overestimated?
After Huawei encountered the restriction of chip rules, there was indeed a upsurge of chip research and development in China. Tens of thousands of chip companies appeared in just a few years. However, the high-tech and capital-intensive threshold of chips is difficult for these new companies to overcome. Now it may be the stage of elimination.
More “Huawei” chips have emerged in China. Bill Gates overestimated Chinese chips? The situation changes
Since the establishment of the integrated circuit industry fund in 2014, there has been an upsurge of chip entrepreneurship in China. Since Huawei encountered the chip problem in 2019, the upsurge of chip entrepreneurship in China has gradually reached a climax. However, as mentioned above, chip research and development takes time and is very difficult. Over the years, those capable of developing chips have also come to the surface, and those without strength will be eliminated by the market.
So we can see that in 2021, more than 3000 domestic chip enterprises will fall down, and in 2022, more than 5000 chip enterprises will close down. But this does not mean that China’s chip industry will decline so rapidly. In recent years, China has broken the gap in many chip industries.
Chip companies such as Fuman Micro and Zhuosheng Micro have successfully developed RF chips, memory chips have also begun to occupy a large market share, analog chips have also begun to replace American chips, and even some domestic chips, such as home electronics chips, have also been recognized by American home appliance manufacturers. It can be seen that China’s chip industry has indeed made many breakthroughs, which exactly confirms the words of American billionaire Bill Gates, Limiting the supply of chips to China will promote the growth of more Chinese chips, while American chips will suffer huge losses.
More “Huawei” chips have emerged in China. Bill Gates overestimated Chinese chips? The situation changes
In 2022, China’s chip imports decreased by 97 billion. It can be seen that the substitution of domestic chips led to a large reduction in China’s chip imports, while the performance of American chips declined in succession, Intel and Micron suffered losses, and Bill Gates’ prediction was verified.
It can be seen that the fall of more than 8000 domestic chip enterprises does not mean that China’s chips have suffered from difficulties. On the contrary, it just means that other chip enterprises have really grown up. They have begun to seize the market, eliminate those who fish in troubled waters, purify the market, and provide more space for the development of these powerful domestic chip enterprises. Domestic chips will grow rapidly.